A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each composes two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
